USD/CHF forecast: Here’s why the Swiss franc is soaring
The Swiss franc continued its strong rally this week and is now trading at its highest level since August 2011. The USD/CHF pair was trading at 0.7655, down by over 16% from its highest point in 2025. This article explores some of the top reasons the pair has more downside to go.
Swiss franc is benefiting from its safe-haven status
The main reason behind the ongoing Swiss franc surge is that it has emerged as a safe-haven asset as risks continue rising.
The most recent risk came from Donald Trump, who has warned that he would attack Iran if the country does not reach a nuclear agreement with the United States.
Trump has sent an armada to the region and is under pressure from neocons like Senator Lindsey Graham, Mark Levin, and Mike Pompeo to attack.
Most analysts believe that the US will attack the country soon, with odds rising on Polymarket and Kalshi. Such a move will lead to more volatility globally as Iran has warned that it will retaliate against any attacks.
The Swiss franc has also jumped because of the ongoing fear that the US will go through another prolonged government shutdown next week because of the crisis on ICE and the Department of Homeland Security. Odds of a shutdown have continued rising this week, which explains why gold and silver prices have soared.
Additionally, there are concerns about the fiscal health of the United States as its public debt continues rising. Data shows that the debt has jumped to over $38 trillion, a figure that is soaring by $2 trillion a year.
US public debt will get worse if Donald Trump’s tariffs are ended by the Supreme Court. These tariffs are expected to curtail the debt pile-up by over $4 trillion in the next decade. At the same time, the Big Beautiful Bill is expected to boost the debt by over $6 trillion in the same period.
The US, under President Trump, has embraced a highly confrontational approach with friends and foes. For example, he recently threatened to impose tariffs on friendly countries like Germany, France and the UK.
Switzerland is seen as a safe haven
It is against this backdrop that many investors are turning to the Swiss franc, which is seen as a top safe country because of its neutrality.
The country has not been involved in military activities in the past decades and it often takes a neutral stance on most things.
Additionally, it is one of the best countries in terms of its finances. Switzerland has over $141 billion in public debt and a GDP of over $854 billion. The Swiss National Bank (SNB), while the Swiss National Bank holds over $850 billion in assets.
USD/CHF technical analysis
The weekly chart shows that the USD/CHF exchange rate has been in a strong downward trend in the past few years. It recently moved below the lower side of the bearish flag pattern.
The pair has moved below all moving averages and the Supertrend indicator. Therefore, the most likely scenario is where it continues falling as sellers target the next key support level at 0.7500.
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